A COVID-19 Pandemic Artificial Intelligence-Based System With Deep Learning Forecasting and Automatic Statistical Data Acquisition: Development and Implementation Study.

BACKGROUND: More than 79.2 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1.7 million deaths were caused by SARS-CoV-2; the disease was named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization. Control of the COVID-19 epidemic has become a crucial issue around the globe, but there are limited studies that investigate the global trend of the COVID-19 pandemic together with each country's policy measures. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop an online artificial intelligence (AI) system to analyze the dynamic trend of the COVID-19 pandemic, facilitate forecasting and predictive modeling, and produce a heat map visualization of policy measures in 171 countries. METHODS: The COVID-19 Pandemic AI System (CPAIS) integrated two data sets: the data set from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker from the Blavatnik School of Government, which is maintained by the University of Oxford, and the data set from the COVID-19 Data Repository, which was established by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This study utilized four statistical and deep learning techniques for forecasting: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), feedforward neural network (FNN), multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, and long short-term memory (LSTM). With regard to 1-year records (ie, whole time series data), records from the last 14 days served as the validation set to evaluate the performance of the forecast, whereas earlier records served as the training set. RESULTS: A total of 171 countries that featured in both databases were included in the online system. The CPAIS was developed to explore variations, trends, and forecasts related to the COVID-19 pandemic across several counties. For instance, the number of confirmed monthly cases in the United States reached a local peak in July 2020 and another peak of 6,368,591 in December 2020. A dynamic heat map with policy measures depicts changes in COVID-19 measures for each country. A total of 19 measures were embedded within the three sections presented on the website, and only 4 of the 19 measures were continuous measures related to financial support or investment. Deep learning models were used to enable COVID-19 forecasting; the performances of ARIMA, FNN, and the MLP neural network were not stable because their forecast accuracy was only better than LSTM for a few countries. LSTM demonstrated the best forecast accuracy for Canada, as the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were 2272.551, 1501.248, and 0.2723075, respectively. ARIMA (RMSE=317.53169; MAPE=0.4641688) and FNN (RMSE=181.29894; MAPE=0.2708482) demonstrated better performance for South Korea. CONCLUSIONS: The CPAIS collects and summarizes information about the COVID-19 pandemic and offers data visualization and deep learning-based prediction. It might be a useful reference for predicting a serious outbreak or epidemic. Moreover, the system undergoes daily updates and includes the latest information on vaccination, which may change the dynamics of the pandemic.

A Novel Block Imaging Technique Using Nine Artificial Intelligence Models for COVID-19 Disease Classification, Characterization and Severity Measurement in Lung Computed Tomography Scans on an Italian Cohort.

Computer Tomography (CT) is currently being adapted for visualization of COVID-19 lung damage. Manual classification and characterization of COVID-19 may be biased depending on the expert's opinion. Artificial Intelligence has recently penetrated COVID-19, especially deep learning paradigms. There are nine kinds of classification systems in this study, namely one deep learning-based CNN, five kinds of transfer learning (TL) systems namely VGG16, DenseNet121, DenseNet169, DenseNet201 and MobileNet, three kinds of machine-learning (ML) systems, namely artificial neural network (ANN), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF) that have been designed for classification of COVID-19 segmented CT lung against Controls. Three kinds of characterization systems were developed namely (a) Block imaging for COVID-19 severity index (CSI); (b) Bispectrum analysis; and (c) Block Entropy. A cohort of Italian patients with 30 controls (990 slices) and 30 COVID-19 patients (705 slices) was used to test the performance of three types of classifiers. Using K10 protocol (90% training and 10% testing), the best accuracy and AUC was for DCNN and RF pairs were 99.41 ± 5.12%, 0.991 (p < 0.0001), and 99.41 ± 0.62%, 0.988 (p < 0.0001), respectively, followed by other ML and TL classifiers. We show that diagnostics odds ratio (DOR) was higher for DL compared to ML, and both, Bispecturm and Block Entropy shows higher values for COVID-19 patients. CSI shows an association with Ground Glass Opacities (0.9146, p < 0.0001). Our hypothesis holds true that deep learning shows superior performance compared to machine learning models. Block imaging is a powerful novel approach for pinpointing COVID-19 severity and is clinically validated.

Detection of Hate Speech in COVID-19-Related Tweets in the Arab Region: Deep Learning and Topic Modeling Approach.

BACKGROUND: The massive scale of social media platforms requires an automatic solution for detecting hate speech. These automatic solutions will help reduce the need for manual analysis of content. Most previous literature has cast the hate speech detection problem as a supervised text classification task using classical machine learning methods or, more recently, deep learning methods. However, work investigating this problem in Arabic cyberspace is still limited compared to the published work on English text. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to identify hate speech related to the COVID-19 pandemic posted by Twitter users in the Arab region and to discover the main issues discussed in tweets containing hate speech. METHODS: We used the ArCOV-19 dataset, an ongoing collection of Arabic tweets related to COVID-19, starting from January 27, 2020. Tweets were analyzed for hate speech using a pretrained convolutional neural network (CNN) model; each tweet was given a score between 0 and 1, with 1 being the most hateful text. We also used nonnegative matrix factorization to discover the main issues and topics discussed in hate tweets. RESULTS: The analysis of hate speech in Twitter data in the Arab region identified that the number of non-hate tweets greatly exceeded the number of hate tweets, where the percentage of hate tweets among COVID-19 related tweets was 3.2% (11,743/547,554). The analysis also revealed that the majority of hate tweets (8385/11,743, 71.4%) contained a low level of hate based on the score provided by the CNN. This study identified Saudi Arabia as the Arab country from which the most COVID-19 hate tweets originated during the pandemic. Furthermore, we showed that the largest number of hate tweets appeared during the time period of March 1-30, 2020, representing 51.9% of all hate tweets (6095/11,743). Contrary to what was anticipated, in the Arab region, it was found that the spread of COVID-19-related hate speech on Twitter was weakly related with the dissemination of the pandemic based on the Pearson correlation coefficient (r=0.1982, P=.50). The study also identified the commonly discussed topics in hate tweets during the pandemic. Analysis of the 7 extracted topics showed that 6 of the 7 identified topics were related to hate speech against China and Iran. Arab users also discussed topics related to political conflicts in the Arab region during the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic poses serious public health challenges to nations worldwide. During the COVID-19 pandemic, frequent use of social media can contribute to the spread of hate speech. Hate speech on the web can have a negative impact on society, and hate speech may have a direct correlation with real hate crimes, which increases the threat associated with being targeted by hate speech and abusive language. This study is the first to analyze hate speech in the context of Arabic COVID-19-related tweets in the Arab region.

Dynamics and Development of the COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States: A Compartmental Model Enhanced With Deep Learning Techniques.

BACKGROUND: Compartmental models dominate epidemic modeling. Transmission parameters between compartments are typically estimated through stochastic parameterization processes that depends on detailed statistics of transmission characteristics, which are economically and resource-wise expensive to collect. OBJECTIVE: We aim to apply deep learning techniques as a lower data dependency alternative to estimate transmission parameters of a customized compartmental model, for the purpose of simulating the dynamics of the US coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and projecting its further development. METHODS: We constructed a compartmental model and developed a multistep deep learning methodology to estimate the model's transmission parameters. We then fed the estimated transmission parameters to the model to predict development of the US COVID-19 epidemic for 35 and 42 days. Epidemics are considered suppressed when the basic reproduction number (R0) is less than 1. RESULTS: The deep learning-enhanced compartmental model predicts that R0 will fall to <1 around August 17-19, 2020, at which point the epidemic will effectively start to die out, and that the US "infected" population will peak around August 16-18, 2020, at 3,228,574 to 3,308,911 individual cases. The model also predicted that the number of accumulative confirmed cases will cross the 5 million mark around August 7, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Current compartmental models require stochastic parameterization to estimate the transmission parameters. These models' effectiveness depends upon detailed statistics on transmission characteristics. As an alternative, deep learning techniques are effective in estimating these stochastic parameters with greatly reduced dependency on data particularity.